I live in Peoria, Arizona where we experience two seasons – pleasant and unpleasant. The market too has its own seasons. Since the October Manager’s Message, I feel we’ve been experiencing an “Indian Summer”. This implies that perhaps winter is around the corner, and might explain why our portfolios are sporting sweaters.
You’ve often heard me say that I manage risk rather than return. I view risk in two categories: (1) being aggressive and risk a market decline, or (2) being defensive and possibly miss a market rally. Recently we’ve been doing some managing of the second kind. Below is a picture of the “why”.
There’s been no shortage of media superlatives in recent months as “the market” has made new highs. The “rest of the story”, to borrow Paul Harvey’s famous line, is in the small cap’s which are an important indication of market health in terms of breadth.