In the short-run, the market is a voting machine. Some risks have abated as others become the focus of the market’s voting mechanism. If the market climbs a wall of worry, I would worry about the wall growing shorter.
Is October the worst month of the year for stocks, or has it taken the blame for September? Sensationalism is a mainstay of articles on seasonal or calendar investing. We’ll take an objective, Coherent approach to stock market seasonality.
As January comes to a close, you will no doubt hear someone quote the January Barometer – “As January goes, so goes the year.” January is looking good so far this year, so 2017 should end positive, right? But is this real research or fake science? At Coherent, we vetted this theory and share our findings with you.
The difference in calendar year returns by selling in May is this: You have a 60% chance of under-performing, but in return for less volatility. Selling in May can be a significant benefit to the investor in market down-trends, but then it’s not about selling in May anymore. Investing has always depended on knowing what is the trend now, and what is its likelihood of changing in the near term.