Earnings growth set a new millennium record in 2018. It’s now a major hurdle to growth in 2019. Growth estimates are a third of last year’s and declining. The mortar in the market’s wall of worry now is margins.

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The New Year’s Eve tradition of “dropping the ball” to usher in the new year seems especially appropriate to close out 2018. The stock market had a tumultuous ride in 2018 and “dropped the ball” at year end!

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Margins drove outstanding earnings growth in 2018, and can choke it off in 2019. It may seem as if this correction is a bit overdone. But there is a major issue. Margins are at record highs and forecast to recede.

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