Will the Fed raise short-term rates this year? How have their decisions affected stock and bond markets? The salient question is what the market thinks The Fed will do. Get ready for some objective answers.
The difference in calendar year returns by selling in May is this: You have a 60% chance of under-performing, but in return for less volatility. Selling in May can be a significant benefit to the investor in market down-trends, but then it’s not about selling in May anymore. Investing has always depended on knowing what is the trend now, and what is its likelihood of changing in the near term.
First quarter 2016 earnings expectations as of the end of April are for yet another quarter of sales and earnings contraction. Excessive optimism has been a consistent theme for more than a year. Is it possible for the market to grow the estimated 15% by year end?
Volatile stock markets create conditions that can interfere with investor decisions. Learning how to recognize cognitive biases and understanding financial behaviors can help investors manage emotions and deal with negative financial and geopolitical news.
It’s been a tumultuous period since September 2014 when the first crack appeared in the bull market which started in 2011. One year later, the August 2015 tremors would confirm a market that had topped and was correcting. The January aftershocks squelched any remaining euphoria evident in the preceding October rally.
Since the post-Greenspan Fed declared glasnost, studying Fed speeches has become more gratifying and educational. I want to focus on the speech given at the Economic Club of New York on March 29th by the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Janet Yellen. I believe it sets the tone for the rest of this year if not the decade.
A surprising number of investors lack a rudimentary knowledge regarding the nature of stock dividends. This knowledge gap contributes to a perpetual misunderstanding regarding security performance. Filling this knowledge gap will help foster an understanding of where dividends fit in an overall portfolio strategy.
Earnings season for the first quarter of this year is virtually complete. We are witnessing consecutive quarters of earnings contraction not seen since 2009. The hope that revenue and earnings growth would have resumed by now has been postponed until the second half of the year.
Tax filing season is a great time to review your overall financial situation because you have all your financial information right in front of you! The goal is to look at taxes over two consecutive years to determine what is the most effective use of various tax strategies.
Since we began reducing exposure on July 15, we have been monitoring the market to determine a relatively low risk re-entry point. Our intent is to put cash back to work over time, as we sense the market is looking to start a new up-trend. In this Market Update we wish to update you, our clients, on our perspective of the current markets and our near term outlook as these relate to how we manage your portfolios.